In Belarus, a slide toward Eastern aggression

On Sunday, the nation of Belarus held presidential elections. On Sunday evening, the police officers of Belarus handed out their verdict. By midnight, tens of thousands of people had been chased out of the main square in central Minsk, hundreds had been arrested and hundreds more severely beaten. Young people limped away from demonstrations with broken arms, bloody heads. Seven out of nine Belarusan presidential candidates were in jail. One of them, Vladimir Neklyayev, was beaten unconscious and then dragged away from the hospital, wrapped in blankets. As of this writing, he is still missing, locked up in an unknown location.

Police arrested journalists, too, breaking into offices and shutting down their operations. Later, they also arrested artists and actors at home. Just for good measure, cyber police also shut down Web sites and social networking sites – Twitter, Facebook and their Belarusan equivalents – and blocked access to foreign sites that carried news of the events in Minsk. Borrowing tactics from their counterparts down the road in Moldova, Belarusan special forces – still known, creepily, as the KGB – apparently sent in thugs to join the Election Day demonstrations, break windows in the parliament and throw stones, the better to justify the crackdown.

All in all, it was a stunning display of the regime’s weakness: Indeed, the violence that unfolded in the wake of Alexander Lukashenko’s fourth presidential election “victory” can only be explained as a sign of the Belarusan dictator’s failure. After the polls closed, Lukashenko claimed to have received nearly 80 percent of the vote. But politicians who are that popular have no need to beat, arrest and harass their opponents, send provocateurs into a crowd or shut down Web sites.

And indeed, Lukashenko’s true support is thought to be rather lower than 80 percent. Belsat – a Polish-based television station that broadcasts into Belarus – reckons Lukashenko’s actual support is closer to 30 percent, based on polls taken over several months. Some other outsiders put the number at 38 percent, but either number explains why reports of electoral fraud are widespread, why observers were not allowed to observe the counting, why the state-run media concentrated 90 percent of its attention on Lukashenko and why Radio Free Europe began to collect reports of discrepancies so early in the day. It also explains why truckloads of riot police were sent out to wait for demonstrators in central Minsk before they even arrived.

Under these circumstances, Lukashenko’s “victory” also means that – after a long flirtation with the liberal West and the authoritarian East – the Belarusan dictator has made his choice. Last month, the foreign ministers of Germany and Poland (yes, I am married to the latter) went to Minsk with an offer: In exchange for free elections, the European Union offered a major aid package, more open borders, and the potential for a deeper economic and political relationship. Since then, however, Lukashenko has repaired his skittish relationship with the Kremlin and signed a oil deal with Moscow, ensuring that his country’s old economic model remains at least partly intact. For much of the past decade, Belarus has imported cheap oil from Russia, exported more expensive oil and oil products elsewhere, and has thus kept its budget balanced and its politicians rich. Now the deal is less favorable, but it’s still better than anything Belarus could get on the open market.

And that, for the moment, is it. Statements will be issued, sanctions might be declared. Lukashenko could have a hard time getting a visa to Berlin or London. But in truth, the West has few carrots to offer unpopular dictators – even unpopular dictators who share borders with Europe – other than free trade and the long-term possibility of integration and economic growth. European foreign ministers cannot guarantee Lukashenko personal wealth. They cannot offer corrupt oil deals. They can talk about “freedom” – and they did – but they have to compete with others who talk about “the Chinese model,” who offer more predictable forms of job security and who aren’t bothered by a few arrests. On the Monday morning after the police attack on the opposition, the Russian president, Dmitry Medvedev, declared that the elections were Belarus’s “internal affair.”

This, then, is what the “decline of the West” looks like in the eastern half of Europe: The United States and Europe, out of money and out of ideas, scarcely fund the Belarusan opposition. Russia, flush with oil money once again, has agreed to back Lukashenko and fund his regime. Let’s hope it costs them a lot more than they expect.

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